THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS EFFECT ON INDONESIAN AGRIBUSIN ESS EXPORTS?
February 4th, 2016
The global economic crisis which started from during 2008 was expected to lower the global demand for agricultural products. Data from the Central Statistical Agency, Indonesia, shows that there was a significant decrease in the export value of non-oil and gas products from 2008 to 2010; and a significant increase from 2009 to 2010. Export values of some main exported products such as vegetable and animal oil, rubber, wood, coffee, tea and pepper decreased in almost all destination countries. The panel data method was applied in analyzing the determinants and impacts of the global economic crisis on some of the Indonesian major agricultural exports. This study found that the global economic crisis significantly depressed the commodityprice. The volume of some main agricultural exports increased from 2008 to 2009; however, a large drop in commodity price reduced the export value. The panel data
model found that the main determinant of Indonesian exports of CPO, rubber and coffee was the export price. The coefficient of economic distance was negative and statistically significant.
Keywords: economic crisis, agriculture, export demand, panel data model.
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